A scheduled event that cuts Bitcoin's block reward in half roughly every 4 years, reducing new BTC supply.
The halving is a pre-programmed event in Bitcoin's protocol that cuts the block reward given to miners in half approximately every 210,000 blocks (roughly every four years). This mechanism controls Bitcoin's supply inflation, gradually reducing the rate at which new BTC enters circulation until the maximum supply of 21 million is reached (estimated around 2140). Halvings have historically preceded major bull markets: the 2012 halving was followed by a rise from $12 to $1,100; the 2016 halving preceded the climb to $20,000; and the 2020 halving preceded the rise to $69,000. The most recent halving occurred in April 2024, reducing the reward from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC per block. While past performance doesn't guarantee future results, halvings represent a supply shock that, combined with growing demand, has historically been bullish.
Bitcoin halving events cut the block reward miners receive in half approximately every four years (every 210,000 blocks), systematically reducing the rate of new BTC supply entering circulation. Previous halvings: 2012 (50→25 BTC), 2016 (25→12.5 BTC), 2020 (12.5→6.25 BTC), 2024 (6.25→3.125 BTC). Each halving has historically preceded significant price appreciation, though the causal relationship is debated. Supply-side economics suggests that reduced new supply with constant or growing demand should increase price. However, halvings are predictable events — efficient market theory suggests they should be priced in advance. The counterargument is that the actual impact isn't fully felt until miners who were operating on thin margins are forced to sell their BTC reserves or shut down, temporarily reducing selling pressure. Bitcoin will continue halving until approximately 2140, when the last of 21 million BTC will be mined.
After the April 2024 halving reduced the block reward to 3.125 BTC, miners' daily revenue from new coins dropped from ~900 BTC to ~450 BTC — a $30M+ daily reduction in selling pressure at $70K prices.
No — while all three previous halvings preceded major bull runs, the sample size is small and other factors (macro conditions, adoption cycles, regulatory environment) matter significantly. The halving reduces new supply, which is bullish if demand holds, but doesn't guarantee any specific price outcome.